US INFLATION 6.5%
Can Edge Up Again
Fed to keep hiking
stocks to stop .
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Philosophy matters
The technological revolution, that has swept the financial markets world in recent years, is reaching unheard of levels of broad society participation and opportunity. With this, has come too high leverage capabilities mixed with inexperience. Creating far greater risk of loss than perhaps the majority of market participants, traders and investors alike, fully recognise.
The individual trader does have a key advantage over the large banks and hedge funds. As John Maynard Keynes said, "trading by committee is a sure path to failure". Since the GFC, that is all the large institutional trading rooms and portfolio management teams do. This advantage, must be balanced with the risk of over-leveraging. We are all learning in this new, game like, Fintech world.
When speaking at APEC, I was stopped on a staircase by the fifth most powerful person in Russia, with his security detail, and asked if I was that "currency guy"? I said, yes, and he handed me his card and said to contact him. He became a recipient of my reports. I have rubbed shoulders with Hillary Clinton and presented my thoughts to Treausrers and Prime Ministers. Yet, even so, I have also simply been a trader of my own account on the Sydney Futures Floor. The small guy in the pit with the big guns. Having been both an original thinking global economist and trader at major investment banks, with individual trades of $50 million, and later the trader of my own small individual account, I have a broad experience of life and markets. From humble beginnings, to the upper power echelons, and a great deal in between.
Trading is like life. With all the pitfalls and learning experiences of over-confidence, a loss of humility, fear and greed, but also the good stuff, determination, never giving up, and a willingness to constantly learn and to do better. The only difference is that in financial markets everything is accelerated, more intense and amplified. Seen in this light, markets as an accelerated version of life, there is a lot that begins to make more sense.
My experience is born of having made and lost money, for myself personally, investment banks and clients. Mostly though, over many years, having made a positive contribution. Especially, to large corporations and Australian companies in managing their foreign exchange exposures. Helping workers in those companies to keep their jobs at times, through insightful hedging strategies to protect against extreme foreign exchange price shifts. Getting markets right is a very serious business.
When, all is said and done, and after a significant review of the new world we live in, the nature of markets this has created, and my own journey through all of this, I have landed on the Model X Portfolio as the best approach to take into the future.
After the tumult of recent years, it was clear a new approach was necessary. We have seen daily ranges become multiples of what were once normal weekly ranges only a few years ago. A stand back, more strategic approach in order to avoid the relentless whips of the new daily volatility was required.
The Model X Portfolio is a strategic, and searching across all markets for specific opportunities, diversified approach. Monitored daily. Reviewed and updated weekly. Generating ease of use and superior performance at the same time. There is a focus on major global brand companies, which is where performance has been strongest in both bull and bear market phases. With less emphasis on broad market index trading, though this is still included. Foreign exchange, gold, and even oil markets are also kept a watchful eye on.
This is not a trade every day service. It is about standing back and looking for a strong sentiment in the market, which may in fact be in error. The biggest opportunities, those of large sustained price shifts, occur when the prevailing market opinion and sentiment was in fact wrong. Not recognising in real time the underlying true fundamental situation. The majority of market participants, the financial media and most economists only doing so in hindsight and having to play catch up. The constant justification of price shifts in hindsight, is all the daily beat of the financial press can mange usually.
Identifying those specific opportunities of extreme divergence of sentiment from reality, the market from a differing economic perspective, in real time, is the foundation of all strong macro trading and investment performance.
Naturally, and by law, there can be no guarantees of performance. Past results are no indication of future performance. The markets are ever-changing, evolving, organic places of business. There are no set formulas of methodology. This particular approach, of applying experience, both in time and diversification, is a sincere effort to continue to get it right in the long term.
The Trade For You service utilises Model X in the trading of your own account as you authorise. Secure, with no hidden fees. The one and only fee being purely performance based. This is a unique service in financial markets to be sure.
Please feel free to contact me with your enquiry, or any questions at all.
I look forward to being of service.
Clifford Bennett
FEE Comparison
Managed Fund Industry.
Establishment Fee, 0 to 5%
Contribution Fee, a charge for deposits, 0 to 5%
Management Fee, 0.5 to 2.5%
Performance Fee, 0 to 30%
Advisor Service Fee, 1 to 2%
Private Account Trading Model X.
Establishment Fee, None.
Contribution Fee, None.
Management Fee, None.
Performance Fee, 20%
Advisor Service Fee, None.
Smart swimmer getting ready for a heavy week ahead in markets.
September 19, 2021
Economics
Model X +53.4%
We get it right. We get it wrong. We get it right.
It's pointless not giving up, keeping going, if you are not learning on the way. That's called being stubborn. I have done that. We can also learn along the way from both wins and losses, and never give up. What follows then, is the accolade of determination.
What we do here, is deliver economics no one else has thought of yet, constantly evolving trading strategy to stay in tune, in the music, with markets, and from time to time offer up key policy ideas to political and business leaders to make the world a more level playing field full of opportunity for everyone.
In the end, all that matters is that we help.
Not
The
ordinary
hard hitting
economics
Get outside the bell curve and ahead of the financial media head lines, be where the big moments are.
Keep reaching forward
To see before others is no easy task. Be audacious in your attack.
Immediate themes.
* Markets now faced with "bearish uncertainty", will Fed hike 25 or 50 for several meetings.
* Fed Chair Powell confirms our view of a much higher terminal rate.
My target range has always been 5.75% to 6.5%. Risk as high as 7.5%.
* China Stands Up with a far more assertive rhetoric regarding the relationship with the USA. Saying the US needs to stop its containment approach or conflict is possibility.
* Global markets have caught on to how high the Fed will go 'only a little'.
* Not at all pricing in a potential up-tick in the Ukraine conflict, or the addition of the heightened risk of a China USA clash. Not considered likely, but the risk just stepped up.
* Still Bearish Stocks. Bullish USD for the moment. Oil and Gold to struggle momentarily on Powell comments and higher USD.
* Post covid volatility, the Chinese economy is permanently reset lower. Due to maturing out of the agrarian to industrial/consumer shift.
