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President Trump just said "the War will be over soon", but that is quite a sticking point that the deal to open the Strait of Hormuz does not include Israel or US ships. As I have been saying, the US is not a part of the agreement between Iran and Oman, and there are still risks. Risks that markets are not at all pricing. Just something to keep in mind, in your back pocket so to speak.
7 August 2026
US500 Index: We are going to take a very aggressive approach here. This could well be a stretched market now, with downside vulnerabilities. The impressive upside range break needs to avoid sliding back into that multi-month range. If it does this could be an absolute top for some time. Right now, the market still has upside momentum. We are doing very well being long, but are now setting very tight around 7710 take profit stop loss and go short orders. MacroActive: Tactical trading of the big picture.
6 August 2026
US Services PMI. 54.2 in July, but sadly stalling at not too great levels. A more typical number for this series in a strong, growing, healthy economy, is in the range of 58 to 62. Certainly stronger than a year ago, but be careful not to be too excited about the state of the broad US economy. As opposed to tech and Wall Street euphoria. Which we are cautious of as above.
6 August 2026
Oil is dropping and Stocks are off to the races. Completely and suddenly escaping the long extended risk period we have been in. If trading actively, I would be using a trailing stop below the low of 2 days ago. These are sharp gains. Hopefully the start of a new sustained bullish period. Iran and Oman have worked to reopen the Strait. The US continues to build forces in the region. Not clear of war yet?
5 August 2026
It is not exactly a pleasure to say, I think the war goes on, and oil will rise dramatically yet again. Tehran is saying there are no talks and US naval vessels will soon be targeted if the US continues to blockade. Still, there must be some hope, but probability suggests simply delay tactics by the US to muster the munitions for a ground invasion.
4 August 2026
President Trump has again delayed or cancelled another major escalation. US forces are withdrawing from Kuwait and Bahrain. The Gulf States are pressuring Washington to de-escalate. This is the second planned offensive cancelled. Iran seems to be re-gaining some footing on the diplomatic front with the Gulf States. The US is not winning this war and less and less in control. If the US is forced to a face saving agreement with Iran this would actually be a great thing for oil supply, for the world.
3 August 2026
US Consumer Sentiment, University of Michigan Survey was 55.1 in July. Which may be a five month high, but normal in a healthy US economy is 95? It is good to see some stability in the Index and even signs of some improvement, but the US has a long way to go.
31 July 2026
Australian manufacturing continues to consolidate. The SP Global PMI Index coming in at 52.0. This is an encouraging number and suggests a stronger outlook than may otherwise have been hoped for.
31 July 2026
We have been warning for some time that the aggregate data, due to the expanded wealth gap, is disguising a quite weak economy for most Americans. This data shows a significant slowing. Making its way up the food ladder just a little. Imports for data centres will be a long term plus.
31 July 2026
With a greater war will come higher inflation. The Fed and RBA alike should NOT respond to this inflation with higher rates. The correct monetary response is to reduce rates to offset the pain of higher energy prices and thus keep inflation lower than it would otherwise be.
30 July 2026
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