This is my website. I am an economist, forecaster and trader. I believe trading should be a noble and healthy pursuit. I am interested in the truth of the economic situation on the ground for real people. I call what I do 'look out the window' economics. To apply commonsense to what is going on in the world. To think mid-air and to see the future where there is no data. To make the big calls. To inform people when there are risks. I do this across the world's major economies, politics and financial markets. We can all work together and be prepared for challenging times too.