Screen Shot 2021-02-12 at 9.18.57 am.png


ARE WE IN A TULIP BULB MANIA?

Extract from model x portfolio report 11 February 2021.

Good afternoon, we have remained largely out of the market for an extended period, after being whipped about a little during exaggerated volatility.

We have just sat on our hands really, as what is going on in markets generally, is perhaps even more extreme that the great Tulip Bulb disaster of the Netherlands a long time ago. What happened then, was that a whole society became obsessed with getting rich quickly and easily by speculating.

 

IS THIS 1927-1929 AGAIN?

January 12, 2021

Good morning, and we just closed an incredible trade in Tesla.

At the time, it felt we were buying late near the top, but it worked out as one of the best trades ever. So, we know respecting price action, even when disbelieving the levels achieved, can be highly profitable.

That said, the price action now, for Tesla, and the Tech sector as a whole, is heavier than the broad market. Tech needs to stabilise here, or risk becoming a downward snowball, quickly impacting other sectors and particularly the Australian market and extremely so in stocks like Afterpay that have never made a profit.

Screen Shot 2021-01-12 at 9.01.57 am.png
 

US URGES CHINA SHIFT AWAY FROM EXPORTS

17 March 2021

Screen%20Shot%202021-04-17%20at%2011.05_edited.jpg

One of the amusing things in the financial news headlines today, is the US lecturing China on how to run its economy? I don't mean to insult anyone, but if the US has not yet figured out that China runs their economy better than the US does, then this is a head in the sand story of epic historic proportion.

The false economy presentation by spending the equivalent of 30% of annual GDP by way of stimulus measures on the US economy in the past twelve months, is the greatest economic imbalance in the world today. The unwinding of that false economy over the coming year is likely to be the biggest surprise to most investment firms and economists.


Every economy has positives and negatives, but clearly over the past 15 years China has out-performed. The hard working entrepreneurial culture of the Chinese people and companies has been the main driver of this. While at the same time, the USA has moved ever further away from laissez-faire economics, to more and more government intervention and support in the private sector.


China was the mainstay through the Global Financial Crisis, created single handedly by US investment banks, and allowed the world economy to recover far more quickly than it would otherwise have been able to. Big 'C' saved little 'c'. China saved capitalism. An exaggeration to be sure, but it does make a point. 

The Biden administration has made it very clear that it wants to move further on government intervention in the economy, bigger spending and higher taxes. For the US to be lecturing to China, is alarmingly out of step with the reality of our times. 

 
Screen Shot 2020-01-19 at 1.53.11 pm.png

Fortunate to have forecast the Dow Jones to 30,000, at the start of the previous decade for 2020. The only service globally to do so.

30,000 was on the cover of Economic Horizon. published by a Wall Street firm many years ago.

A full description of the key economic principles that will continue to drive the global economy for decades to come.

 

Jack was there when I walked around the dealing room that morning, "ringing the bell" for the start of the new grand bull market to last 5-15 years.
That was 10 years ago.

 
969226BF-BF7E-4B00-9EAA-CC8F80A0B755_edi

Take it all in first...then take action.