CLIFFORD BENNETT
GLOBAL FORECASTER
China
Think of China as currently working its way through a grand tectonic and historic reset to more normal and sustainable rates of economic growth after the break-neck speed of the shift from agrarian society to modern industrial consumer powerhouse. China will continue to grow at a stronger and faster rate than Europe and the USA. Do not panic about China. Still considerably helping power the global economy.
GDP
The historic reset is clear, and since 2020 I have been forecasting a GDP growth rate range of 2% to 5% for the next 1-3 decades. This remains incredibly impressive by rest of world standards and deserves recognition as such.
New Home Prices are dropping at about 5% from a year ago, and more immediately at 0.5% on the month. Signs of stability should be seen within the next 3-9 months.
Retail Sales were up 3% year on year, and while less than the previous 4.8% number, the levelling out process I spoke of above is very clear here and nothing to panic about.
Un-employment is stable at 5%, but there are serious concerns about massive increases in un-employment among younger workers.
