snapVIEW
geopolitics news and thoughts
Thursday, 4 June, 2026. Day two of this new service.
Trump says Iran promises no nuclear weapons but could change their mind
Iran has always promised no nuclear weapons and has not made any. The risk of them doing so is the same it has always been. Though possibly higher now, after this war. The President seems to be leaving open the possibility of a major war regardless of the terms agreed in any peace deal?
US House vote unlikely to stop war
Four Republicans joined the Democrats to vote against the war. This is an important rebuke for the President, but unlikely to make any material difference to the course of events. The White House is claiming there is a ceasefire, not war now, and will maintain the right to go to war if US forces are seriously attacked.
US Stocks Reality Bites or just some consolidation
The US equity market has been euphoric about pricing in an end of war so many times, one wonders if this isn't a huge buy the rumour sell the fact moment. Certainly liquidity excess has continued to play a role in what may well be a bubble market.
Wednesday, 3 June, 2026. We are just starting today.
Descending into war
Is the most apt description of what is happening at the moment. From Lebanon to Kuwait attacks are increasing again on all sides. With Trump unable to get a winning deal, the outlook has become dire.
China Economy Gaining Strength
The General Services PMI made sharp gains, likely to moderate on the next reading, but nevertheless showing things are beginning to really spark again.
My forecast through year growth is 4.9%. The world's second largest economy is stronger than markets think and picking up pace.
This, while the EU and UK private sectors remain in contraction.
Australia GDP Negative without Public Surge
Australia GDP barely managed 0.2% in Q1. The same as Q4. This despite public consumption surging by 1.6%. Australia is increasingly a public sector economy. Now 26% and growing in market share rapidly. The private sector is on its knees and the RBA keeps raising rates? Perhaps, it thinks it can stop the Iran war by doing so!